Likhamphani tsa lifofane li khona ho mamella

IATA

Batho ba ntse ba fofa ka bongata. Na ho na le bafofisi ba lifofane ba lekaneng ho sebetsana le ho tsosolosoa ho lebeletsoeng ha indasteri ea lifofane? IATA e tlaleha

Batho ba ntse ba fofa ka bongata. Leha ho le joalo, na ho na le bafofisi ba lifofane le basebeletsi ba lifofane ba lekaneng ho sebetsana le ho tsosolosoa ho lebeletsoeng ha indasteri ea lifofane?

Mokhatlo oa Machaba oa Lipalangoang tsa Moea (IATA) o nahana joalo. Mokhatlo oa lifofane o nang le litho tsa lifofane lefatšeng ka bophara o phatlalalitse ntlafatso ea pono ea ona bakeng sa ts'ebetso ea lichelete ea indasteri ea lifofane tsa 2022.

Sena se tla hammoho le pholiso ea koluoa ​​​​ea COVID-19.

Polelo ea IATA e hlalositsoe phatlalatsong ea boralitaba e fanoeng kajeno:

  • Litahlehelo tsa indasteri li lebelletsoe ho theolela ho $9.7 bilione (e ntlafalitsoeng ho tloha ponelopeleng ea Mphalane 2021 bakeng sa tahlehelo ea $ 11.6 bilione) bakeng sa tahlehelo e felletseng ea -1.2%. Eo ke ntlafatso e kholo ho tsoa tahlehelong ea $ 137.7 billion (-36.0% net margin) ka 2020 le $42.1 billion (-8.3% net margin) ka 2021.
     
  • Phaello e pharalletseng indastering ka 2023 e bonahala e ka fihlelleha mme Amerika Leboea e seng e lebelletsoe ho tlisa phaello ea $ 8.8 bilione ka 2022.
     
  • Melemo e sebetsang hantle le ho ntlafatsa chai e thusa lik'hamphani tsa lifofane ho fokotsa tahlehelo esita le ka litšenyehelo tse ntseng li eketseha tsa basebetsi le mafura (tse morao-rao li susumetsoa ke keketseho ea + 40% ea theko ea oli ea lefats'e le sekhahla se ntseng se eketseha selemong sena).
     
  • Ts'epo ea indasteri le boitlamo ba phokotso ea likhase li bonahala ho phano e lebelletsoeng ea ho fana ka lifofane tse fetang 1,200 ka 2022.
     
  • Tlhokahalo e matla ea ho ts'oaroa, ho phahamisoa ha lithibelo tsa maeto mebarakeng e mengata, tlhokahalo e tlase ea mesebetsi linaheng tse ngata, le polokelo e atolositsoeng ea motho ka mong e ntse e eketsa tlhokahalo e tla bona palo ea bapalami e fihla ho 83% ea maemo a pele ho koluoa ​​​​ka 2022.
     
  • Leha ho na le mathata a moruo, palo ea thepa e lebelletsoe ho beha rekoto e holimo ea lithane tse limilione tse 68.4 ka 2022.

“Likhamphani tsa lifofane li khona ho mamella. Batho ba ntse ba fofa ka bongata. 'Me thepa e sebetsa hantle khahlanong le maemo a ntseng a eketseha a ho hloka botsitso moruong. Tahlehelo e tla theoleloa ho $9.7 bilione selemong sena 'me phaello e haufi le 2023. Ke nako ea ho ba le tšepo, leha ho ntse ho e-na le liqholotso mabapi le litšenyehelo, haholo-holo mafura, le lithibelo tse sa feleng limmarakeng tse seng kae tsa bohlokoa," ho boletse Willie. Walsh, Motsamaisi-Kakaretso oa IATA.

Lichelete li ntse li eketseha ha lithibelo tsa COVID-19 li ntse li fokotseha 'me batho ba khutlela maetong. Phephetso ea 2022 ke ho laola litšenyehelo.

"Ho fokotseha ha tahlehelo ke phello ea ho sebetsa ka thata ho boloka litšenyehelo li le tlas'a taolo ha indasteri e ntse e phahama. Ntlafatso ea pono ea lichelete e tsoa ho ts'ebetsong ea litšenyehelo ho ea ho keketseho ea 44% ha meputso e eketsehile ka 55%. Ha indasteri e khutlela maemong a tloaelehileng a tlhahiso le ka litšenyehelo tse phahameng tsa mafura tse ka 'nang tsa lula nakoana, phaello e tla itšetleha ka taolo e tsoelang pele ea litšenyehelo. Mme seo se akaretsa boleng ba ketane. Barekisi ba rona, ho kenyeletsoa boema-fofane le bafani ba lits'ebeletso tsa ho tsamaisa sefofane, ba hloka ho tsepamisa maikutlo ho laola litšenyehelo joalo ka bareki ba bona ho ts'ehetsa ntlafatso ea indasteri," ho boletse Walsh.

Lekhetho la indasteri le lebelletsoe ho fihla ho $782 bilione (+ 54.5% ka 2021), 93.3% ea maemo a 2019. Lifofane tse sebetsang ka 2022 li lebelletsoe ho ba limilione tse 33.8, e leng 86.9% ea maemo a 2019 (lifofane tse limilione tse 38.9).

  • Lekeno la baeti li lebelletsoe ho ikarabella bakeng sa lekhetho la indasteri ea $498 bilione, e fetang habeli ea $239 billion e hlahisitsoeng ka 2021. Linomoro tsa bapalami tse reriloeng li lebelletsoe ho fihla ho limilione tse likete tse 3.8, ka lekeno la lik'hilomithara tsa baeti (RPKs) le ntseng le hola ka 97.6% ha le bapisoa le 2021, le fihla ho 82.4% ea 2019 sephethephethe. Ha tlhoko ea pent-up e lokolloa ka ho nolofalloa ha lithibelo tsa maeto, chai e lebelletsoe ho nyoloha ka 5.6%. Seo se latela tlhahiso ea tlhahiso ea -9.1% ka 2020 le + 3.8% ka 2021.
     
  • Lekeno la thepa li lebelletsoe ho ikarabella bakeng sa $ 191 bilione ea lekhetho la indasteri. Seo se theohile hanyenyane ho tloha ho $ 204 limilione tse likete tse tlalehiloeng ka 2021, empa hoo e batlang e le habeli $ 100 limilione tse likete tse fihletsoeng ka 2019. Ka kakaretso, indasteri e lebelletsoe ho jara lithane tse fetang limilione tse 68 tsa thepa ka 2022, e leng tlaleho e phahameng haholo. Ha tikoloho ea khoebo e ntse e nolofala hanyane, lihlahisoa tsa thepa li lebelletsoe ho theoha ka 10.4% ha li bapisoa le 2021. Seo se khutlisetsa morao keketseho ea lihlahisoa tsa 52.5% ka 2020 le 24.2% ka 2021.

Litšenyehelo ka kakaretso li lebelletsoe ho nyolohela ho $ 796 bilione. Eo ke keketseho ea 44% ka 2021, e bonts'ang litšenyehelo tsa ho ts'ehetsa ts'ebetso e kholoanyane le litšenyehelo tsa inflation linthong tse ling tsa bohlokoa.

  • Fuel: Ho $192 bilione, mafura ke thepa e theko e boima ka ho fetisisa indastering ka 2022 (24% ea litšenyehelo tse akaretsang, ho tloha ho 19% ka 2021). Sena se ipapisitse le theko e lebelletsoeng ea kakaretso ea Brent crude ea $101.2/barrel le $125.5 bakeng sa parafine ea jete. Lifofane li lebelletsoe ho sebelisa lilithara tse limilione tse likete tse 321 ka 2022 ha li bapisoa le lilithara tse limilione tse likete tse 359 tse sebelisitsoeng ka 2019.

    Ntoa ea Ukraine e boloka litheko tsa oli e tala ea Brent li le holimo. Leha ho le joalo, mafura a tla ikarabella bakeng sa kotara ea litšenyehelo ka 2022. Tšobotsi e itseng ea 'maraka oa mafura oa selemo sena ke ho ata ho hoholo pakeng tsa litheko tsa mafura a jete le a jete. Phatlalatso ena ea jet crack e ntse e le ka holimo ho litloaelo tsa histori, haholo-holo ka lebaka la likhaello tsa bokhoni libakeng tsa ho hloekisa. Ho se be le lichelete tse fokolang sebakeng sena ho ka bolela hore ho ata ho lula ho phahamisitsoe ho 2023. Ka nako e ts'oanang, theko e phahameng ea oli le peterole e ka 'na ea bona lik'hamphani tsa lifofane li ntlafatsa matla a tsona a mafura-ka ho sebelisa lifofane tse sebetsang hantle le ka liqeto tsa ts'ebetso.
     
  • Mosebetsing: Mosebetsi ke theko ea bobeli e phahameng ka ho fetisisa ea ts'ebetso ea lik'hamphani tsa lifofane. Khiro e tobileng lekaleng e lebelletsoe ho fihla ho limilione tse 2.7, ho nyoloha ho 4.3% ka 2021 ha indasteri e ntse e ikahela ho tloha phokotsehong e kholo ea ts'ebetso ka 2020. Leha ho le joalo, mesebetsi e ntse e le ka tlase ho mesebetsi e limilione tse 2.93 ka 2019 'me e lebelletsoe ho lula e le tlase. boemo bona ka nako e itseng. Litšenyehelo tsa basebetsi li lebelletsoe ho ba lisente tse 12.2/kilomitara e fumanehang ea tonne (ATK) ka 2022, e leng eona e khutletseng maemong a 2019 ha e ne e le 12.3 cents/ATK.

    Nako e hlokahalang ho thaotha, ho koetlisa, ho hlahloba ts'ireletso ka botlalo / ho hlahloba semelo, le ho etsa lits'ebetso tse ling tse hlokahalang pele basebetsi ba "itokiselitse mosebetsi" e hlahisa phephetso bakeng sa indasteri ka 2022. Maemong a mang, tieho ea mosebetsi e ka sebetsa joalo ka tšitiso bokhoni ba sefofane sa ho fihlela tlhoko ea bapalami.

    Linaheng tseo ho tsona ho hlasimoloha ha moruo ho tsoa seoa sena ho potlakileng 'me sekhahla sa ho hloka mosebetsi se le tlase, mebaraka e tiileng ea basebetsi le khaello ea litsebo li kanna tsa kenya letsoho khatellong e holimo ea meputso. Bili ea meputso ea indasteri e lebelletsoe ho fihla ho $ 173 bilione ka 2022, ho nyoloha ka 7.9% ka 2021, 'me e sa tsamaellane le keketseho ea 4.3% ea kakaretso ea mesebetsi.

Lintlha tsa Macro-Economic

Maemo a moruo a lefats'e a bohlokoa bakeng sa chebo ea indasteri. Polelo ena e kenyelletsa mohopolo oa kholo e tiileng ea GDP ea lefats'e ea 3.4% ka 2022, ho theoha ho tloha ho 5.8% e matla ea selemo se fetileng. Theko ea lichelete e nyolohile 'me e lebeletsoe hore e lule e phahame ho pholletsa le 2022, e ntse e fokotseha nakong ea 2023. 'Me, le hoja phaello ea lebitso e ntse e phahama, phaello ea sebele e lebeletsoe hore e lule e le tlaase kapa e mpe ka nako e tsitsitseng.

Lintho Tse Kotsing

Ho na le mabaka a 'maloa a kotsi a amanang le pono ena.

Ntoa ea Ukraine

Liphello tsa ntoa ea Ukraine litabeng tsa lifofane ha lia fokola ha li bapisoa le tlokotsi e ntseng e tsoela pele ea liphallelo. Pono e nka hore ntoa ea Ukraine e ke ke ea eketseha ho feta meeli ea eona. Har'a litlamorao tse ngata tse mpe tsa ho phahama ha lifofane, ho nyoloha ha theko ea mafura le tlhokeho e ntseng e fokotseha ka lebaka la maikutlo a tlase a bareki e tla ba tsona tsa bohlokoa.

  • Moeti: E kopantsoe, 'maraka oa machaba oa Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, le Moldova e ne e le karolo ea 2.3% ea sephethephethe sa lefats'e ka 2021. Ho phaella moo, hoo e ka bang 7% ea sephethephethe sa machaba sa bapalami (RPK) se ne se tla fetisetsa sebaka sa sefofane sa Russia (data ea 2021), e leng hona joale. e koetsoe ho basebelisi ba bangata, haholo litseleng tse tsamaeang nako e telele lipakeng tsa Asia le Europe kapa Amerika Leboea. Ho na le litšenyehelo tse holimo haholo bakeng sa ho tsamaisa litsela hape bakeng sa bajari ba anngoeng.
     
  • thepa: Ke ka tlase ho 1% feela ea sephethephethe sa thepa ea lefats'e se simolohileng kapa se fetisoa ho pholletsa le Russia le Ukraine. Tšusumetso e kholo e sebakeng se ikhethileng sa thepa e boima ba 'mele moo Russia le Ukraine e leng baetapele ba' maraka, 'me tahlehelo ea matla e ts'oanang e tla ba thata ho e nkela sebaka. 'Me hoo e ka bang 19% ea thepa ea machaba ea thepa (CTKs) e tsamaea ka sefofane sa Russia (data ea 2021). Bajari ba anngoeng ke likotlo ba tobane le litšenyehelo tse phahameng tsa ho tsamaisa litsela hape.

Theko ea Lichelete, Sekhahla sa Tsoala, le Sekhahla sa Phapanyetsano

Sekhahla sa tsoala se ntse se phahama ha libanka tse bohareng li loantša ho nyoloha ha theko. Ntle le ba jereng likoloto (ba tla bona inflation e theola likoloto tsa bona), inflation e kotsi ebile e na le phello ea moruo ea lekhetho ka ho fokotsa matla a ho reka. Ho na le kotsi e fokolang ponong ena ha inflation e tsoela pele ho phahama, 'me libanka tse bohareng li tsoela pele ho phahamisa litefiso tsa phaello.

Ho feta moo, matla a rekoto ea dollar ea Amerika, haeba a tsoela pele, a tla ba le tšusumetso e mpe kaha dollar e matla ea US e ntse e fokotseha ka kakaretso. E eketsa theko ea chelete ea lehae ea likoloto tsohle tse entsoeng ka USD mme e eketsa moroalo oa ho lefella thepa ea mafura e tsoang kantle ho naha e entsoeng ke USD.

Covid-19

Tlhokahalo e ka sehloohong ea maeto e matla. Empa likarabelo tsa mmuso ho COVID-19 li ile tsa iphapanyetsa likeletso tsa Mokhatlo oa Lefatše oa Bophelo tsa hore ho koaloa ha meeli ha se mokhoa o sebetsang oa ho laola ho ata ha vaerase. Maikutlo a nka hore tšireletso e matla le e ntseng e hola ea baahi ho COVID-19 e bolela hore ho ke ke ha ba le pheta-pheto ea liphoso tsena tsa leano. Leha ho le joalo, ho na le kotsi e ka tlase haeba mebuso e ka khutlela likarabelong tse koalang moeli bakeng sa ho phatloha ho tlang.

“Mebuso e tlameha ebe e ithutile lithuto tsa eona koluoeng ea COVID-19. Ho koaloa ha meeli ho baka bohloko ba moruo empa ho fana ka hanyane mabapi le ho laola ho ata ha vaerase. Ka maemo a phahameng a tšireletso ea baahi, mekhoa e tsoetseng pele ea kalafo, le mekhoa ea ho beha leihlo, likotsi tsa COVID-19 li ka laoloa. Hajoale, ha ho na maemo ao litšenyehelo tsa batho le moruo tsa ho koaloa ha meeli ea COVID-19 li ka lokafatsoang, "ho boletse Walsh.

China

Mmaraka oa lehae oa China feela o bile le karolo ea 10% ea sephethephethe sa lefats'e ka 2019. Maikutlo ana a nka phokotso ea butle-butle ea lithibelo tsa COVID-19 halofong ea bobeli ea 2022. Ho tloha pejana ho leano la China la zero COVID, ehlile, ho ka ntlafatsa pono bakeng sa indasteri. Ho kenngwa tshebetsong ha nako e telele ha leano la COVID-19 ho tla tswela pele ho nyahamisa mmaraka wa lehae wa bobedi ho tse kgolo lefatsheng le ho baka tshenyo ka diketane tsa phepelo tsa lefatshe.

3. Round-Up ea Libaka

Ts'ebetso ea lichelete libakeng tsohle e lebelletsoe ho ntlafala ka 2022 ha e bapisoa le 2021 (libaka tsohle li ntlafalitsoe ka 2021 ha li bapisoa le 2020 hape).

Amerika Leboea e lebelletsoe ho tsoela pele ho ba sebaka se matla ka ho fetisisa se sebetsang le sebaka se le seng feela se tla khutlela phaellong ka 2022. E tšehetsoa ke 'maraka o moholo oa lehae oa US le ho buloa bocha ha limmaraka tsa machabeng, ho kenyeletsoa North Atlantic, phaello ea letlooa e lebelletsoe ho ba. $8.8 bilione ka 2022. Tlhokahalo (RPKs) e lebelletsoe ho fihla ho 95.0% ea maemo a pele ho koluoa ​​(2019), le bokhoni ba 99.5%.

Europe: Europe, ntoa ea Russia-Ukraine e tla tsoela pele ho senya mekhoa ea maeto ka hare ho Europe le pakeng tsa Europe le Asia-Pacific. Leha ho le joalo, ha hoa lebelloa hore ntoa e tla senya pholiso ea maeto, ha sebaka se ntse se atamela haufi le phaello ka 2022, ka tahlehelo e felletseng ea $ 3.9 billion e boletsoeng esale pele. Tlhokahalo (RPKs) e lebelletsoe ho fihla ho 82.7% ea maemo a pele ho koluoa ​​(2019), le bokhoni ba 90.0%.

Bakeng sa lifofane tsa Asia-Pacific, lithibelo tse thata le tse tšoarellang tsa maeto (haholo-holo Chaena), hammoho le phallo e sa lekanang ea ente, li bone hore sebaka seo se sa fole ho fihlela joale. Ha lithibelo li fokotseha, tlhoko ea maeto e lebelletsoe ho eketseha kapele. Litahlehelo tse felletseng ka 2022 li lebelletsoe ho theohela ho $8.9 bilione. Tlhokahalo (RPKs) e lebelletsoe ho fihla ho 73.7% ea maemo a pele ho koluoa ​​(2019), le bokhoni ho 81.5%.

Palo ea sephethephethe Latin America e ile ea hlaphoheloa ka matla ka 2021, e tšehelitsoe ke mebaraka ea lapeng le lithibelo tse fokolang tsa maeto linaheng tse ngata. Chelete ea lichelete bakeng sa lifofane tse ling, leha ho le joalo, e ntse e fokola 'me sebaka seo se lebelletsoe ho tlaleha tahlehelo e felletseng ea $ 3.2 bilione selemong sena. Tlhokahalo (RPKs) e lebelletsoe ho fihla ho 94.2% ea maemo a pele ho koluoa ​​(2019), le bokhoni ho 93.2%.Naheng ea Middle East, selemong sena ho buloa bocha ha litsela tsa machaba le lifofane tse nkang nako e telele, haholoholo, li tla fana ka kamohelo e amohelehang bakeng sa ba bangata. Sebakeng ka bophara, tahlehelo e felletseng e lebelletsoe ho theohela ho $ 1.9 bilione ka 2022, ho tloha tahlehelong ea $ 4.7 billion selemong se fetileng. Tlhokahalo (RPKs) e lebelletsoe ho fihla ho 79.1% ea maemo a pele ho koluoa ​​(2019), le bokhoni ho 80.5%.

In Africa, litekanyetso tse tlaase tsa ho entoa li fokolitse ho hlaphoheloa ha leeto la sefofane ho fihlela joale. Leha ho le joalo, ho ka etsahala hore ho be le tse ling selemong sena, tse tla kenya letsoho ntlafatsong ea ts'ebetso ea lichelete. Litahlehelo tsa kakaretso li lebelletsoe ho ba $ 0.7 bilione ka 2022. Tlhokahalo (RPKs) e lebelletsoe ho fihla ho 72.0% ea maemo a pele ho koluoa ​​(2019), le bokhoni ba 75.2%.

Mabapi le mongoli

Avatar ea Juergen T Steinmetz

Mokha oa Juergen T Steinmetz

Juergen Thomas Steinmetz esale a sebetsa indastering ea maeto le ea bohahlauli ho tloha ha a le lilemong tsa bocha Jeremane (1977).
O thehile eTurboNews ka 1999 e le leselinyana la pele le fumanehang marang-rang bakeng sa indasteri ea bohahlauli ea maeto a lefats'e.

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